Mickey Kaus for U.S. Senate

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'What is in front of one's nose ... ' (June 9, 2010 11:30 AM)

TNR's Jonathan Chait goes to the record books to dispute the idea that yesterday's Senate primary results in California show "some unusual level of dissatisfaction" with Democratic incumbents. As is so often the case, Chait seems to be seeing what he wants to see. Here are those numbers:

SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN

2000 (%)

Dianne Feinstein 95.5

Michael Schmier 4.5

Total non-inumbent vote: 4.5

2006 (%)

Dianne Feinstein 87.0

Colleen Fernald 8.0

Martin Luther Church 5.0

Total non-incumbent vote: 13.0

SEN. BARBARA BOXER

1998 (%)

Barbara Boxer 92.15

James Pinkerton 7.85

Total non-incumbent vote: 7.85

2004

(Primary was uncontested)

2010 %

Barbara Boxer 80.5%

Brian Quintana 14.2

Mickey Kaus 5.3

Total non-incumbent vote: 19.8

If you're not a pugnacious anti-contrarian TNR writer, you might conclude from these numbers that a) Feinstein is a bit less controversial than Boxer and b) the protest vote against each candidate is rising. In fact, there was a big anti-Boxer "protest" vote yesterday--more than two and a half times that of 1998. I just didn't get most of it. ...

Update: OK, not all of Quintana's votes were necessarily "anti-Boxer" or "protest" votes. But the same might be said of the non-incumbent votes in earlier elections. ... If Quintana made a special pitch to Latino voters, as he at one point said he'd would, those might not be protest voters, for example--though it's hardly a sign of strength for Boxer to lose them. ... But you still can't derive Chait's no-trend conclusion by looking at Chait's numbers. You can only get to it by explaining away the numbers. ... And some portion of Quintana's total undoubtedly was an anti-Boxer vote. ... 11:57 A.M.

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From: DavidLA (yuguchiarc@roadrunner.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

I voted for you, but it wasn't a protest vote against Boxer. Sometimes I am just sympathetic to the hapless underdog.

June 11, 2010 2:06 PM

From: James Taranto

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

I think the Quintana vote was an anti-Kaus protest vote, motivated by Mickey's position on immigration.

June 10, 2010 12:06 AM

From: Chris

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

I guess the Democratic Party of our grandparents is indeed dead and gone. Long gone, apparently. I suppose if next time you focus more on empowerment, inclusiveness, justice, communities, cycles of poverty, sustainability, speaking truth to power and raising awareness you'll have more luck. I, on the other hand liked your platform as it was.

June 10, 2010 12:06 AM

From: Steve Sailer (SteveSlr@aol.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

You got 94,545 votes. That's a lot more than I expected. Congratulations.

June 9, 2010 9:06 PM

From: Rob Schmidt (robschmidt@compuserve.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

I voted for ya. Not because I agree with you on illegal immigration or anything, but because you seem smarter and more honest than the typical pandering politician. I prefer someone who thinks critically to someone with exactly the "right" positions.

June 9, 2010 8:06 PM

From: Enrico Pollazo

Subject: The Protest of the Protest

Unfortunately, Brian Quintana ran on a campaign all about supporting amnesty and the teacher's unions -- his slogan actually was, "A Leader for Teachers Unions and Illegals," so what we've learned is that Quintana was the protest candidate of the protest candidate, i.e., you, Mickey. I do think it was a problem that the issues you were running on had very little to do with what a Senator does. Next time, Lieutenant Governor?

June 9, 2010 5:06 PM

From: lakecountydem

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

It might not be my place to be proud of you but...I'm proud of you Mickey -- keep speaking for us thinking Democrats/liberals

June 9, 2010 5:06 PM

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June 9, 2010 5:06 PM

From: Jan (farleymount@yahoo.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

I agree with Dave, it seems bizarre but it must be Quintana's latino name that got him that much but I'm not sure that's the whole story, very strange. Perhaps you should have changed your legal name to "Roberto" so you could have reeled in the Latino and Jewish vote. I wish the website had been stronger and set up earlier, it seemed like a lot of stuff was happening late in the game, and your message became more palatable to Democrats later on. Prep is key.

June 9, 2010 4:06 PM

From: Scott Thomson (sthomson1971@yahoo.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

Thanks for running.

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June 9, 2010 2:06 PM

From: Steve Smith (sesmithesq@aol.com)

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At least you ran.

June 9, 2010 1:06 PM

From: Carl Pham (carlpham8@gmail.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

Aw, Mickey. You suck. I can't believe you scored less than 1/3 of that nobody Hollywood loser Quintana. What the hell? I can believe the entire Democratic electorate of California has their heads up their asses...which...is...tempting....or you must just be the world's worst candidate. I'm very disappointed. I even sent you money and talked my woman into voting for you. Jeez. You need to fall on your sword now, I think. And maybe re-examine your notions, friend. It seems quite possible that if folks are protesting against the Modern Democrat, they're doing it by turning into independents or Republicans (probably the former). It doesn't really seem like there's as much interest as you (and I) thought in bringing the Truman/Jackson brand of the Democratic Party back from the dead. I think you have to face facts. Obama is the face of the New Democratic Party, and classical liberalism has faded from it, replaced by nascent fascism and neo-Marxism. I don't know what to tell you. You may have to join the Tea Partiers and talk about government that works in part because it is smaller, more focussed on its core duties, and more respectful of the Constitution. The message may resonate.

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From: Lester Dent (lesterdent@comcast.net)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

I forget, from time to time, that I remain a registered Democrat. It was with pleasant surprise that I was able to vote for you yesterday. My vote, as well as the other 379 people who voted for you, was both protest and support - protest of Boxer and the incumbant elite, and support of someone who understands how the unions and illegal immigration have destroyed California. Thanks for the effort, Mickey. You're quite wrong on about 2/3 of your platform issues, which makes you 1/3 more desirable than Boxer, with at least a 50% bump for integrity, humor and guts.

June 9, 2010 1:06 PM

From: Reader Since 2000

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

Hey Mickey - really appreciate your run, and I'm one of thousands who voted for you. Your point here seems valid! Pardon me for asking, but how did Brian Quintana get so many votes... I guess I'm out of touch, but I didn't know the guy existed! Here's a provocative article about him from LAT last year: Startling claims from a 'Hollywood go-to guy'

June 9, 2010 1:06 PM

From: piscivorous (rmpayne@handi-tek.com)

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

Congratulations Mickey and thanks for trying. You got of your ass and put your time, effort and money where your beliefs are. To me that says much about your character and moral fiber.

June 9, 2010 1:06 PM

From: Amy Alkon (adviceamy@aol.com)

Subject: 5% is huge

Considering how late you started, your funding sources, and that Independents had to be told they had to swap their ballot for Dem to vote for you. The people I know who were your supporters/voters are people who are sick of hairdos like Boxer having power, sick of pandering by elected officials, and sick of junketing nitwits and know-nothings in office. You are still the best choice of anyone who's running, vis a vis who'd do the best job of representing the people and sane, intelligent, reasonable, public-serving government.

June 9, 2010 1:06 PM

From: Dave

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

No, the 14% Brian Quintana got was just uninformed hispanics blindly voting for the guy with a hispanic surname. This isn't a knock on hispanics. In very white Hermosa Beach a well-respected superior court judge lost reelection to a bagel shop owner. The judge had a long ethnic name, the bagel shop owner had an English name: --You perhaps recall Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Dzintra Janavs, who was defeated for re-election to the bench last year by a woman who had spent more of the previous decade running a bagel shop than practicing law. The defeat outraged many, including those of us at the Los Angeles Times editorial page and, apparently, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who promptly reappointed Janavs to the bench. Janavs' tenure on the court was uninterrupted. But since, on paper, she was starting a new judgeship, she's up for re-election all over again this June. So if it's true that she was targeted because of her foreign-sounding name, something that made her vulnerable at the ballot box, could she be defeated for the second year in a row? And would the governor again return her to the bench despite the voters' actions? We'll never know. The Metropolitan News-Enterprise reported today that Janavs is retiring from the bench. Janavs was the first Los Angeles Superior Court judge defeated for re-election in 18 years. She was trounced by Lynn D. Olson, an inactive attorney who ran Manhattan Bread & Bagel with her husband, Hermosa Beach Councilman Michael Keegan. The Janavs-Olson race told establishment types everything they don't want to hear about judicial elections: slate mailers count more than newspaper editorials or Los Angeles County Bar Association ratings (the County Bar rated Janavs "exceptionally well-qualified," Olson "not qualified"); voters respond to partisan appeals (Janavs is a Republican, Olson a Democrat); voters like all-American-sounding names better than foreign-sounding ones; and voters are generally clueless when it comes to selecting judges. In case you don't think that whole foreign-sounding-name thing really makes any difference, check out this review of recent judicial elections by Court of Appeal Justice Rebecca A. Wiseman.--

June 9, 2010 1:06 PM

From: The Ydiot (the.ydiot@gmail.com)

Subject: Congrats!

Congratulations, Mickey. This was more successful than many of us had imagined it would be. We did want to draw your attention to Matt Yglesias calling your run a "total joke," but we have your back at www.ydiot.net (specifically, http://www.ydiot.net/2010/06/draft-ydiot.html). Best regards, The Ydiot

June 9, 2010 12:06 PM

From: Esteban Nunez

Subject: re: 'What is in front of one's nose ... '

Chait's numbers prove that any random name appearing on the ballot will get about 5% for no particular reason. I love how you're trying to claim credit for a "protest vote" that actually went to another guy. Brian Quintana is an unknown nobody, you are 1/3 of an unknown nobody. Hack of a job, Mick!

June 9, 2010 12:06 PM

From: John Burke (jeburke242@aol.com)

Subject: More than 5%!!

Congrats Mickey! Getting 5% with what you had and did is quite an accomplishment (lots of candidates with far greater resources get less). With $1 million, you could have won. Now, all you need is to figure out how to get $1 million next time.

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